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NDCMP Weather Forecast

District 1District 2
Transition (UTC)203193
FirstSecondThirdFirstSecondThird
Forecasted WeatherNO SIGNO SIGNO SIGRAINNO SIGNO SIG

Forecaster: Benjamin Schaefer

Synopsis


A relatively quiet day will follow the significant severe weather event from yesterday. A broken upper-level jet will flatten out over the region and begin to move northward in correspondance with a bulging area of high pressure over the southwestern and western United States. A strong surface low is situated over southwestern Manitoba, and is bringing with it moderate to heavy rainfall across district 2 this morning, as well as strong post-frontal westerly winds to both districts. These winds will bring cooler, drier air into the region. Expect convection to move out of district 2 by 19Z today. Following that, expect clearing skies and temperatures ranging from the mid 60s to low 70s across western North Dakota. Given the approaching high pressure and lack of moisture/instability, no more significant weather is expected for the remainder of the forecast period.

6/11/21


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Flash Flood Guidance (Click Image for 1hr, 3hr, & 6hr Graphics)

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A broken upper-level jet will continue to flatten and move northward through the period.

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Afternoon temperatures will be relatively cool given strong northwest flow at the surface. Note the low pressure system to the north.

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Morning surface map shows strong winds out of the west/northwest.

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Dewpoints will be significantly lower across the region given advection of cool, dry air. Note that they are higher in D2 near the surface low and convection.

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Indices


Lifted Index
(<1)		 K index
(>30)		 Total Totals
(>48)		 Sweat
(>200)		 Cape
(>125)		 CIN
(>-100)		 Bulk Richarson Number
(>3)		 Helicity
(>125)
D1 8.1 10.5 36.9 82 0 0 0 70
ISN 6.9 9.5 39.3 135 0 0 0 127
MOT 6.2 16.9 40.3 171 0 0 0 202

Jefferson Index
(>28.5)		Cross Totals
(>18.65)		Thompson Index
(>28.5)		S Index
(>35.8)		Showalter Index
(<=0.5)		Cap Strength
(0-2.65°C)
D1 18 9.7 2.4 22.3 8 0
ISN 18 13.9 2.6 21.7 6.9 0
MOT 22 16.2 10.7 27.4 6.3 0

Weather Features

  • Cyclonic Vorticity Advection
  • Surface High Pressure
  • Upper Level Ridge
  • Zonal Flow

Soundings


Bowman Sounding Text
Williston Sounding Text
Minot Sounding Text