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NDCMP Weather Forecast

District 1District 2
Transition (UTC)413715
FirstSecondThirdFirstSecondThird
Forecasted WeatherNO SIGRAINNO SIGNO SIGNO SIGNO SIG

Forecaster: Lynnlee Rosolino

Synopsis


Today should be relatively calm in both districts. Temperatures will be lower today than the past few days with highs in the mid to upper 80s. Dewpoints will increase throughout the forecast period in both districts with the exception of a dry line developing in north district 1 early this evening. Around the time that dry line fills in, a shortwave will pass through. Those two factors combined could cause storms to develop in district 1 in the overnight hours. CAPE values are low in both districts today, and there is signficant CIN, so these storms will likely be minimally convective. District 2 is unlikely to get any significant weather throughout the forecast period.

Looking ahead to tomorrow, CAPE values will be higher and a cold front will be passing through, so convective storms are more likely to develop. These cells will likely begin in the late afternoon to early evening hours in district 1, and a little later in district 2.

7/4/21


Flash Flood Guidance (Click Image for 1hr, 3hr, & 6hr Graphics)

Temperatures will be in the mid to upper 80s

Maximum dew points will be in the mid 50s

District 1 has a small dry line around 22Z

Minimal CAPE values are present throughout both districts

A shortwave will pass through around 11Z


Indices


Lifted Index
(<1)
K index
(>30)
Total Totals
(>48)
Sweat
(>200)
Cape
(>125)
CIN
(>-100)
Bulk Richarson Number
(>3)
Helicity
(>125)
D1 -0.7 33.8 50.9 168 21 -136 4 64
ISN 1.6 29.2 46.4 120 0 0 0 38
MOT 3.2 27.2 45.2 182 0 0 0 5

Jefferson Index
(>28.5)
Cross Totals
(>18.65)
Thompson Index
(>28.5)
S Index
(>35.8)
Showalter Index
(<=0.5)
Cap Strength
(0-2.65°C)
D1 29 16.1 34.5 41.6 -1 3.1
ISN 27 15.7 27.6 37.8 1.6 0
MOT 26 17.6 24 34.7 1.4 0

Weather Features

  • Dry Line/Slot
  • Short Wave Trough
  • Upper Level Trough