NDCMP Weather Forecast

Forecaster: Benjamin Schaefer

Synopsis

A significant severe weather day is expected for both districts today. A large upperlevel shortwave trough with an associated jetstreak over the southwestern United States is expected to progress northeastward today, bringing height falls and likely convection to the region. A strong suface low over northeastern Wyoming is forecasted to trek northward throughout the day, pulling in strong moist, warm air advection from the Gulf of Mexico. In association with this low pressure, a warm front is extended from west to east over central North Dakota, and is expected to lift slowly northward into district 2 by the afternoon. There is also a prominent dry line extending north to south across eastern Montana and Wyoming, and will push slowly eastward throughout the day into western North Dakota.

South and east of these two fronts, conditions are prime for severe weather activity, and both districts fall within this region. Low-level moisture from the Gulf of Mexico will result in high dewpoints into the low-mid 60s this afternoon. This, combined with steep lapse rates, will yield high instability and CAPE values upwards of 3000 J/kg in both districts today. Storms will most likely develop sometime after 21Z. both along the dry line on the western edge of district 1 and the warm front situated over district 2. Expect a hightened hail risk for both districts this afternoon and evening. There is even a tornado risk, particularly in district 2 near the convergence of the warm front and dry line, where low-level wind shear and SRH values are increased.

Given the presence of moderate capping in the area, particularly over district 2, expect storms to initially remain discrete. However, storms should quickly become linear after 00Z and quickly move east out of district by 03Z as a cold front rapidly approaches from the west. Behind the cold front, another wave of storms is expected as the low pressure system moves into the area. Expect this round to be mainly elevated, and pose a rain threat from 05Z to 12Z for district 1, and 05Z to the end of the forecast period for district 2.

6/10/21

Indices

Weather Features

• Cold Front
• Dry Line/Slot
• Jet Stream (PVA) RRQ or LFQ
• Low Level Jet
• Short Wave Trough
• ThetaE Ridge
• Upper Level Trough
• Warm Front

Soundings