NDCMP Weather Forecast
| District 1 | District 2 | |||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Transition (UTC) | 3 | 10 | 3 | 10 | ||||||||
| First | Second | Third | First | Second | Third | |||||||
| Forecasted Weather | RAIN | NO SIG | NO SIG | RAIN | NO SIG | RAIN | ||||||
Forecaster: Daniel Brothers
Synopsis
An upper level trough is shifting across the state today. This is the cause for widespread cloud cover and some rain showers this morning. The surface low that moved through last night is now moving east of Bismarck. While these features may be enough to force new convection in central and eastern ND today, the districts are more likely to miss out. Dew points are in the upper 50s for much of western ND this morning, and will only slide slightly lower as the day progresses. Temperatures for both districts should remain in the 70s. This means any new cumulus clouds could have bases in the 7,000-8,000ft range. The lower atmosphere has a small amount uncapped instability this afternoon, so as the existing cloud cover diminishes new cumulus development should occur fairly quickly. The problem is that there is a stable layer around 650mb that will likely inhibit vertical growth of these clouds. The result will be cumulus clouds that try to tower, but get capped off at mid-levels. These may result in weak radar returns, but would likely remain too shallow for rain enhancement operations to take place, since cloud tops may only be reaching 0C to -5C. It?ll be close. The forecast leans on the safe side, and thus includes rain for both districts this afternoon. Overnight, cooler 500mb temps move into the state so that by morning the mid-levels are less stable. There is also evidence of a shortwave moving through the almost northerly flow that could provide some forcing. As daytime heating starts to kick in close to briefing, the atmosphere as a whole quickly becomes marginally unstable and any mild capping quickly erodes. This could result in better rain enhancement opportunities and maybe TSRA shortly after briefing tomorrow. Sunday could still have a chance for a few showers as well, but the chances are not as good as Saturday. For most of next week the state becomes more under the influence of a large upper level ridge that is building over the Western US, which likely means hotter and dry conditions for most of next week.
6/25/21
Indices
| Lifted Index (<1) |
K index (>30) |
Total Totals (>48) |
Sweat (>200) |
Cape (>125) |
CIN (>-100) |
Bulk Richarson Number (>3) |
Helicity (>125) |
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D1 | 0.9 | 33.7 | 47.4 | 166 | 26 | -3 | 1 | -9 |
| ISN | 0.8 | 15.3 | 48.3 | 130 | 4 | -6 | 1 | -4 |
| MOT | 2.7 | 31.2 | 44.4 | 135 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -9 |
| Jefferson Index (>28.5) | Cross Totals (>18.65) | Thompson Index (>28.5) | S Index (>35.8) | Showalter Index (<=0.5) | Cap Strength (0-2.65°C) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D1 | 31 | 21.4 | 32.8 | 44.3 | 0.3 | 0.3 |
| ISN | 22 | 20.7 | 14.5 | 27.8 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| MOT | 30 | 20.4 | 28.5 | 41 | 3 | 2 |
Weather Features
- 500mb Temps < -15C
- Cyclonic Vorticity Advection
- Short Wave Trough
- Upper Level Trough