NDCMP Weather Forecast

District 1District 2
Transition (UTC)191201
FirstSecondThirdFirstSecondThird
Forecasted WeatherRAINRAINNO SIGRAINRAINTSRA

Forecaster: Alexis Staniec

Synopsis


Today there is a cold front that has moved south from Canada and down into District 1. This could allow for possible convection and isolated thunderstorms in District 1 today. There is also a shortwave trough moving east from Montana which could allow for possible convection throughout the day. This shortwave trough will likely, if at all, only move through the north end of D1. Dew points are in the 50s and 60s today in D1, but CAPE values are extremely low, so there is a small chance of any large pop-up storms, but a light rain is mostly expected. Cloud cover today is at almost 100%.

In District 2, there is a very small shortwave trough making its way from Montana that moves over the north end of D2 this evening. However, this shortwave trough is so far north that it is unlikely that any large storms should make it into the district, but there is still a chance. Dew points today in District 2 are also in the 50s, and 60s, but CAPE values are still very low, so any chances of thunderstorms are not likely possible, so just rain is really expected today. Cloud cover in District 2 is also at almost 100%.

Any chances of convection should be out of District 1 by 1Z, and District 2 by 4Z.

7/28/21


Flash Flood Guidance (Click Image for 1hr, 3hr, & 6hr Graphics)

Surface map today current.

500 mb vorticity 00Z.

500 mb relative humidity 21Z.

500 mb veritcal velocity 21Z.

Dew points today 17Z.


Indices


Lifted Index
(<1)
K index
(>30)
Total Totals
(>48)
Sweat
(>200)
Cape
(>125)
CIN
(>-100)
Bulk Richarson Number
(>3)
Helicity
(>125)
D1 6.4 20.3 40.6 117 0 0 0 -45
ISN 6.4 18.5 40.3 131 0 0 0 -6
MOT 8.1 17 37.4 135 0 0 0 -26

Jefferson Index
(>28.5)
Cross Totals
(>18.65)
Thompson Index
(>28.5)
S Index
(>35.8)
Showalter Index
(<=0.5)
Cap Strength
(0-2.65°C)
D1 21 10 13.9 26.7 4.9 0
ISN 20 12.4 12.1 25.4 5 0
MOT 19 11.3 8.9 23.4 6.6 0

Weather Features

  • Cold Front
  • Short Wave Trough